Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the China Meteorological Administration and global models place Chengdu’s daily maximum near 31 °C on May 18, anchoring the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 30–32 °C. Mid-May climatological averages for the Sichuan basin show highs typically between 26–30 °C under strengthening subtropical high pressure and moderate moisture from the Bay of Bengal, with limited spread in current guidance reflecting partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Afternoon convective heating and minor timing differences in cloud cover introduce the residual uncertainty that keeps adjacent brackets competitive, while outcomes above 33 °C remain discounted absent stronger warming signals. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will further refine the final observed maximum recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport.