Recent forecasts from multiple models show peak temperatures in Chengdu on September 4 likely reaching 32–34°C under the lingering influence of the subtropical high, with partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting excessive heating while scattered mountain showers pose minimal urban impact. Key variables include afternoon solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the timing of any cloud build-up or moisture advection from the west, which could trim highs by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds cluster around 33–35°C because traders weigh the current stable high-pressure regime against typical model spread and the approach of cooler autumn rain patterns expected later in the week. New model runs and official CMA guidance will refine these thresholds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日成都气温最高？
9月4日成都气温最高？
34°C 36%
33°C 23%
35°C 17%
32°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
11%
33°C
23%
34°C
36%
35°C
17%
36℃
6%
37°C或更高
2%
34°C 36%
33°C 23%
35°C 17%
32°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
$0 交易量
3%
28°C
$0 交易量
4%
29°C
$0 交易量
4%
30°C
$24 交易量
2%
31°C
$30 交易量
3%
32°C
$4 交易量
11%
33°C
$0 交易量
23%
34°C
$6 交易量
36%
35°C
$40 交易量
17%
36℃
$44 交易量
6%
37°C或更高
$100 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show peak temperatures in Chengdu on September 4 likely reaching 32–34°C under the lingering influence of the subtropical high, with partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting excessive heating while scattered mountain showers pose minimal urban impact. Key variables include afternoon solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the timing of any cloud build-up or moisture advection from the west, which could trim highs by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds cluster around 33–35°C because traders weigh the current stable high-pressure regime against typical model spread and the approach of cooler autumn rain patterns expected later in the week. New model runs and official CMA guidance will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$249结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show peak temperatures in Chengdu on September 4 likely reaching 32–34°C under the lingering influence of the subtropical high, with partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting excessive heating while scattered mountain showers pose minimal urban impact. Key variables include afternoon solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the timing of any cloud build-up or moisture advection from the west, which could trim highs by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds cluster around 33–35°C because traders weigh the current stable high-pressure regime against typical model spread and the approach of cooler autumn rain patterns expected later in the week. New model runs and official CMA guidance will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$249结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecasts from multiple models show peak temperatures in Chengdu on September 4 likely reaching 32–34°C under the lingering influence of the subtropical high, with partly cloudy skies and light winds limiting excessive heating while scattered mountain showers pose minimal urban impact. Key variables include afternoon solar insolation, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the timing of any cloud build-up or moisture advection from the west, which could trim highs by 1–2°C. Market-implied odds cluster around 33–35°C because traders weigh the current stable high-pressure regime against typical model spread and the approach of cooler autumn rain patterns expected later in the week. New model runs and official CMA guidance will refine these thresholds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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