Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于芝加哥8月13日的最高温度？
芝加哥8月13日的最高温度？
78-79°F 100.0%
67°F或以下 <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,375 交易量
$73,375 交易量
2026-08-13
67°F或以下
否
68-69°F
否
70-71°F
否
72-73°F
否
74-75°F
否
76-77°F
否
78-79°F
是
80-81°F
否
82-83°F
否
84-85°F
否
86°F或更高
否
78-79°F 100.0%
67°F或以下 <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$73,375 交易量
$73,375 交易量
2026-08-13
67°F或以下
$4,253 交易量
否
68-69°F
$3,860 交易量
否
70-71°F
$4,835 交易量
否
72-73°F
$3,330 交易量
否
74-75°F
$10,630 交易量
否
76-77°F
$6,317 交易量
否
78-79°F
$6,493 交易量
是
80-81°F
$15,294 交易量
否
82-83°F
$7,734 交易量
否
84-85°F
$3,580 交易量
否
86°F或更高
$7,050 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$73,375结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$73,375结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 9:02 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 78°F at Chicago-area stations on August 13, 2026, locking in the market's 100% implied probability for the 78–79°F bin. Pre-event guidance highlighted cloud cover, scattered showers, and a moderating lake breeze that suppressed insolation and kept highs several degrees below the 83°F climatological normal, with ensemble models showing only modest spread around the mid-to-upper 70s. These conditions aligned with historical analogs featuring comparable moisture and mid-level heights that rarely produce outliers beyond a narrow range. Realistic challenges would require unexpected clearing and stronger southerly flow to push peaks into the low 80s, though post-event data eliminated that possibility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题