Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago on September 12 point to a high near 83–85°F under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with light southwesterly flow and minimal precipitation risk, anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F bin at 42% implied probability. A modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough, combined with urban heat retention and reduced lake-breeze suppression, supports temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 77.5°F. Model spread remains the key uncertainty: slight westward shifts in the surface high or stronger onshore flow could cap readings in the low 80s, while clearer skies or delayed cloud cover could push into the mid-80s. Updated NWS guidance and 12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月12日芝加哥气温最高？
9月12日芝加哥气温最高？
84-85°F 42%
82-83°F 36%
86-87°F 14%
80-81°F 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
73°F或以下
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
42%
86-87°F
14%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
6%
92°F或更高
4%
84-85°F 42%
82-83°F 36%
86-87°F 14%
80-81°F 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
73°F或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
6%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
6%
80-81°F
$42 交易量
11%
82-83°F
$163 交易量
36%
84-85°F
$100 交易量
42%
86-87°F
$162 交易量
14%
88-89°F
$5 交易量
5%
90-91°F
$0 交易量
6%
92°F或更高
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago on September 12 point to a high near 83–85°F under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with light southwesterly flow and minimal precipitation risk, anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F bin at 42% implied probability. A modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough, combined with urban heat retention and reduced lake-breeze suppression, supports temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 77.5°F. Model spread remains the key uncertainty: slight westward shifts in the surface high or stronger onshore flow could cap readings in the low 80s, while clearer skies or delayed cloud cover could push into the mid-80s. Updated NWS guidance and 12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
交易量
$470结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago on September 12 point to a high near 83–85°F under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with light southwesterly flow and minimal precipitation risk, anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F bin at 42% implied probability. A modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough, combined with urban heat retention and reduced lake-breeze suppression, supports temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 77.5°F. Model spread remains the key uncertainty: slight westward shifts in the surface high or stronger onshore flow could cap readings in the low 80s, while clearer skies or delayed cloud cover could push into the mid-80s. Updated NWS guidance and 12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$470结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ETCurrent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts for Chicago on September 12 point to a high near 83–85°F under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with light southwesterly flow and minimal precipitation risk, anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F bin at 42% implied probability. A modest warm advection ahead of a weak trough, combined with urban heat retention and reduced lake-breeze suppression, supports temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of 77.5°F. Model spread remains the key uncertainty: slight westward shifts in the surface high or stronger onshore flow could cap readings in the low 80s, while clearer skies or delayed cloud cover could push into the mid-80s. Updated NWS guidance and 12Z model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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