Forecast models from agencies including AccuWeather and numerical ensembles project a daily maximum near 39°C in Guangzhou on August 12 under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and strong solar heating across the Pearl River Delta. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for the region, where historical analogs show frequent highs of 37–39°C when subsidence suppresses convection. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 39°C reflects convergence across ensemble runs and real-time observations confirming the outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day thunderstorm development or localized measurement differences at official stations that could shift the recorded peak by 1°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月12日广州气温最高？
8月12日广州气温最高？
39°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$48,382 交易量
$48,382 交易量
2026-08-12
31°C或以下
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C
否
36°C
否
37°C
否
38°C
否
39°C
是
40°C
否
41°C或更高
否
39°C 100.0%
31°C或以下 <1%
32°C <1%
33°C <1%
$48,382 交易量
$48,382 交易量
2026-08-12
31°C或以下
$471 交易量
否
32°C
$450 交易量
否
33°C
$903 交易量
否
34°C
$1,825 交易量
否
35°C
$2,607 交易量
否
36°C
$4,594 交易量
否
37°C
$8,864 交易量
否
38°C
$7,473 交易量
否
39°C
$6,943 交易量
是
40°C
$9,324 交易量
否
41°C或更高
$4,928 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including AccuWeather and numerical ensembles project a daily maximum near 39°C in Guangzhou on August 12 under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and strong solar heating across the Pearl River Delta. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for the region, where historical analogs show frequent highs of 37–39°C when subsidence suppresses convection. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 39°C reflects convergence across ensemble runs and real-time observations confirming the outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day thunderstorm development or localized measurement differences at official stations that could shift the recorded peak by 1°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$48,382结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including AccuWeather and numerical ensembles project a daily maximum near 39°C in Guangzhou on August 12 under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and strong solar heating across the Pearl River Delta. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for the region, where historical analogs show frequent highs of 37–39°C when subsidence suppresses convection. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 39°C reflects convergence across ensemble runs and real-time observations confirming the outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day thunderstorm development or localized measurement differences at official stations that could shift the recorded peak by 1°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$48,382结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Forecast models from agencies including AccuWeather and numerical ensembles project a daily maximum near 39°C in Guangzhou on August 12 under a persistent subtropical high-pressure system, with minimal cloud cover, light winds, and strong solar heating across the Pearl River Delta. This setup aligns with peak summer climatology for the region, where historical analogs show frequent highs of 37–39°C when subsidence suppresses convection. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 39°C reflects convergence across ensemble runs and real-time observations confirming the outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited but include late-day thunderstorm development or localized measurement differences at official stations that could shift the recorded peak by 1°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题