Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月18日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
5月18日伊斯坦布尔的最高温度？
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 14%
23°C or higher 13.5%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
14%
21°C
33%
22°C
26%
23°C or higher
14%
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 14%
23°C or higher 13.5%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
13°C or below
$446 交易量
<1%
14°C
$774 交易量
<1%
15°C
$1,119 交易量
<1%
16°C
$795 交易量
<1%
17°C
$1,699 交易量
<1%
18°C
$1,103 交易量
2%
19°C
$764 交易量
4%
20°C
$405 交易量
14%
21°C
$467 交易量
33%
22°C
$307 交易量
26%
23°C or higher
$846 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$8,724结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$8,724结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System point to a daytime maximum near 21–22 °C in Istanbul on May 18, keeping the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes tightly matched in trader pricing. Mid-May climatology for the region, drawn from Turkish State Meteorological Service records, places average highs at 20–22 °C, so current model consensus sits squarely within historical norms rather than signaling an outlier. Small differences in predicted cloud cover, sea-breeze timing along the Bosphorus, and subtle steering of a weak high-pressure ridge over the Marmara Sea create the narrow spread between these two leading bins. Forecasters will release updated model runs overnight, which could shift the implied probabilities if any late adjustment to wind direction or boundary-layer moisture appears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题