Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecasts point to a 31°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 17, underpinned by light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and stable early-season atmospheric conditions ahead of the Meiyu front. This consensus aligns with historical May climatology, where highs typically reach 28–32°C under similar synoptic patterns, and recent model runs show little divergence in peak temperature or timing. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability for exactly 31°C reflects high confidence in these stable conditions. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a minor shift in steering winds could realistically cap the high at 30°C or nudge it to 32°C, though such deviations remain low-probability based on current observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月17日台北气温最高?
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,647 交易量
$111,647 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$111,647 交易量
$111,647 交易量
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration forecasts point to a 31°C daily maximum in Taipei on May 17, underpinned by light easterly flow, minimal cloud cover, and stable early-season atmospheric conditions ahead of the Meiyu front. This consensus aligns with historical May climatology, where highs typically reach 28–32°C under similar synoptic patterns, and recent model runs show little divergence in peak temperature or timing. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability for exactly 31°C reflects high confidence in these stable conditions. An unexpected surge in afternoon convection or a minor shift in steering winds could realistically cap the high at 30°C or nudge it to 32°C, though such deviations remain low-probability based on current observational data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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