Numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration, supported by GFS and ECMWF runs, have converged on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17 under light southerly flow and a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This consensus aligns with historical May averages around 27–28°C and current midday observations near 25–26°C, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 28°C outcome. Traders view the skin-in-the-game consensus as robust given the narrow uncertainty range in short-range forecasts. However, rapid shifts in cloud cover, localized wind patterns, or minor adjustments in official airport data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport could still allow a 29°C reading before the observation window closes tonight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月17日武汉气温最高?
28°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
29°C <1%
$51,745 交易量
$51,745 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
29°C <1%
$51,745 交易量
$51,745 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration, supported by GFS and ECMWF runs, have converged on a daily maximum of 28°C for Wuhan on May 17 under light southerly flow and a modest subtropical ridge that favors daytime warming with partial cloud cover limiting further intensification. This consensus aligns with historical May averages around 27–28°C and current midday observations near 25–26°C, driving the 99.6% market-implied probability for the 28°C outcome. Traders view the skin-in-the-game consensus as robust given the narrow uncertainty range in short-range forecasts. However, rapid shifts in cloud cover, localized wind patterns, or minor adjustments in official airport data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport could still allow a 29°C reading before the observation window closes tonight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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