Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a fragile ceasefire, naval blockade effects, and Iranian threats of mine-laying or permit requirements, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz despite some recovery signals. Recent tracking data show daily volumes fluctuating between roughly 4 and 55 vessels, versus a pre-conflict norm near 60, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at 1.2% and shipper caution over safety. These factors create closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100 buckets, as traders weigh persistent routing uncertainty and potential last-minute escalations against gradual resumption of eastbound and tanker flows. Key swing variables for the week of June 22 include mine-clearance progress and any new IRGC statements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于100艘以上 74%
75-99 17%
50-74 7%
25-49 1.4%
$23,055 交易量
$23,055 交易量
2026-06-28
少于25艘
1%
25-49
1%
50-74
7%
75-99
17%
100艘以上
74%
100艘以上 74%
75-99 17%
50-74 7%
25-49 1.4%
$23,055 交易量
$23,055 交易量
2026-06-28
少于25艘
$2,133 交易量
1%
25-49
$2,015 交易量
1%
50-74
$2,226 交易量
7%
75-99
$3,338 交易量
17%
100艘以上
$13,343 交易量
74%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a fragile ceasefire, naval blockade effects, and Iranian threats of mine-laying or permit requirements, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz despite some recovery signals. Recent tracking data show daily volumes fluctuating between roughly 4 and 55 vessels, versus a pre-conflict norm near 60, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at 1.2% and shipper caution over safety. These factors create closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100 buckets, as traders weigh persistent routing uncertainty and potential last-minute escalations against gradual resumption of eastbound and tanker flows. Key swing variables for the week of June 22 include mine-clearance progress and any new IRGC statements.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Jun 21, 2026, 2:08 PM ET
交易量
$23,055结束日期
2026-06-28市场开放时间
Jun 21, 2026, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a fragile ceasefire, naval blockade effects, and Iranian threats of mine-laying or permit requirements, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz despite some recovery signals. Recent tracking data show daily volumes fluctuating between roughly 4 and 55 vessels, versus a pre-conflict norm near 60, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at 1.2% and shipper caution over safety. These factors create closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100 buckets, as traders weigh persistent routing uncertainty and potential last-minute escalations against gradual resumption of eastbound and tanker flows. Key swing variables for the week of June 22 include mine-clearance progress and any new IRGC statements.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 22, 2026, through June 28, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$23,055结束日期
2026-06-28市场开放时间
Jun 21, 2026, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a fragile ceasefire, naval blockade effects, and Iranian threats of mine-laying or permit requirements, continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz despite some recovery signals. Recent tracking data show daily volumes fluctuating between roughly 4 and 55 vessels, versus a pre-conflict norm near 60, with elevated war-risk insurance premiums at 1.2% and shipper caution over safety. These factors create closely matched implied probabilities across the sub-100 buckets, as traders weigh persistent routing uncertainty and potential last-minute escalations against gradual resumption of eastbound and tanker flows. Key swing variables for the week of June 22 include mine-clearance progress and any new IRGC statements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题