**Incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Baird's decisive victory in the May 5, 2026, GOP primary over challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper—despite a competitive field and endorsements like Indiana AG Todd Rokita's—has solidified trader consensus at over 90% for a Republican win in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+15 Cook PVI).** The district's rural eastern Indiana base consistently delivers strong Republican margins, with Baird's re-election bids since 2018 facing minimal general election threats amid low Democratic turnout in safe seats. Democrat Drew Cox's primary win sets up a steep uphill battle, as no recent polls show competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Baird scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave flipping deep-red districts, though historical base rates for such upsets remain near zero.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$1,351 交易量
91%
民主党
$80 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Baird's decisive victory in the May 5, 2026, GOP primary over challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper—despite a competitive field and endorsements like Indiana AG Todd Rokita's—has solidified trader consensus at over 90% for a Republican win in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+15 Cook PVI).** The district's rural eastern Indiana base consistently delivers strong Republican margins, with Baird's re-election bids since 2018 facing minimal general election threats amid low Democratic turnout in safe seats. Democrat Drew Cox's primary win sets up a steep uphill battle, as no recent polls show competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Baird scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave flipping deep-red districts, though historical base rates for such upsets remain near zero.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$1,431结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Baird's decisive victory in the May 5, 2026, GOP primary over challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper—despite a competitive field and endorsements like Indiana AG Todd Rokita's—has solidified trader consensus at over 90% for a Republican win in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+15 Cook PVI).** The district's rural eastern Indiana base consistently delivers strong Republican margins, with Baird's re-election bids since 2018 facing minimal general election threats amid low Democratic turnout in safe seats. Democrat Drew Cox's primary win sets up a steep uphill battle, as no recent polls show competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Baird scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave flipping deep-red districts, though historical base rates for such upsets remain near zero.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,431结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Baird's decisive victory in the May 5, 2026, GOP primary over challengers Craig Haggard and John Piper—despite a competitive field and endorsements like Indiana AG Todd Rokita's—has solidified trader consensus at over 90% for a Republican win in Indiana's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican (R+15 Cook PVI).** The district's rural eastern Indiana base consistently delivers strong Republican margins, with Baird's re-election bids since 2018 facing minimal general election threats amid low Democratic turnout in safe seats. Democrat Drew Cox's primary win sets up a steep uphill battle, as no recent polls show competitiveness. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Baird scandal, health issue, or unprecedented national Democratic midterm wave flipping deep-red districts, though historical base rates for such upsets remain near zero.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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