**Trader sentiment for Ankara’s August 28 minimum temperature clusters tightly around 12–17 °C because short-range forecast guidance and real-time observations show the overnight low hovering near the middle of that range amid variable nocturnal cooling.** Forecasts from multiple sources converge on a daytime high near 25–28 °C followed by a drop to roughly 14–16 °C overnight, with some model runs and local guidance indicating a possibility of 13–15 °C if skies clear and winds remain light. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover, low dew points (around 8–11 °C), and light northerly flow promote stronger temperature drops after sunset, while any lingering showers or increased mid-level moisture can limit the fall by enhancing downward longwave radiation and boundary-layer mixing. The near-even implied probabilities across 12–17 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise timing and extent of clearing versus any convective activity expected through the evening, as well as small differences between the official Esenboga station reading and broader urban conditions. Historical August overnight minima in Ankara typically range 14–18 °C, placing the current setup within normal late-summer variability driven by high-pressure influence and dry continental air. Upcoming model updates and hourly observations through the night will likely shift the tightest probabilities as the actual minimum is realized.