Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Istanbul on August 30 most likely falling between 20–22°C, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities clustered around those values. Overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, combined with light northerly winds and dew points near 18°C, supports this range. Sea-surface temperatures in the Sea of Marmara near 24–26°C provide a moderating influence, while the absence of significant synoptic systems or strong advection keeps variability low. Recent cooling from scattered showers on the 29th has brought conditions slightly below seasonal normals, but stabilization is expected overnight. Model consensus and historical late-August climatology reinforce the tight distribution of probabilities, with only modest uncertainty from local microclimate or forecast timing differences.