Recent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日开普敦最低温度？
9月4日开普敦最低温度？
6°C或以下 59%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
6°C或以下
59%
7°C
15%
8°C
19%
9°C
20%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
49%
13°C
32%
14°C
49%
15°C
49%
16°C或更高
2%
6°C或以下 59%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
6°C或以下
$0 交易量
59%
7°C
$0 交易量
15%
8°C
$0 交易量
19%
9°C
$0 交易量
20%
10°C
$0 交易量
49%
11°C
$0 交易量
49%
12°C
$0 交易量
49%
13°C
$0 交易量
32%
14°C
$0 交易量
49%
15°C
$0 交易量
49%
16°C或更高
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRecent short-range model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs points to a southeasterly wind surge clearing skies after Thursday's rain and cooler advection, producing an overnight minimum near 13°C on September 4 under partly clear conditions with dew points in the single digits. Strong 20–30 mph SE winds limit radiational cooling while advecting drier maritime air, keeping the low above typical early-spring values around 11°C yet short of warmer 15°C+ scenarios tied to delayed clearing. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, with traders assigning the highest implied probability to 13°C because localized topographic effects and exact wind timing introduce the narrow uncertainty separating it from nearby bins. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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