Recent model consensus and official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory point to a minimum near 26–27 °C on 31 August, as persistent moist southwesterly flow and a broad low-pressure trough sustain high humidity and widespread cloud cover that restricts nocturnal radiative cooling. Light northerly winds overnight offer only modest ventilation, while scattered showers and thunderstorms further moderate temperature drops. These conditions sit slightly above late-August climatological norms for the territory, explaining the market’s tight clustering around 25–27 °C and the modest edge for 26 °C. Traders are monitoring the next forecast updates and any changes in cloud or wind fields that could shift the recorded low by 1 °C either way before resolution.