Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C或以下 <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 交易量
$63,971 交易量
2026-05-15
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C或以下 <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 交易量
$63,971 交易量
2026-05-15
18°C或以下
$2,541 交易量
<1%
19°C
$2,325 交易量
<1%
20°C
$2,408 交易量
<1%
21°C
$2,288 交易量
<1%
22°C
$3,899 交易量
<1%
23°C
$5,193 交易量
<1%
24°C
$12,287 交易量
<1%
25°C
$8,673 交易量
100%
26°C
$12,015 交易量
<1%
27°C
$8,229 交易量
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$63,971结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$63,971结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded a precise minimum of 25°C on May 15, 2026, anchoring the overwhelming 99.9% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. In Hong Kong’s subtropical climate, mid-May overnight lows typically stabilize between 24–27°C under persistent high pressure from the South China Sea, with minimal northerly wind or cloud cover to enhance radiative cooling. Traders have rapidly incorporated this verified station data rather than relying on forecasts, reflecting the resolution criteria tied directly to the official daily minimum. Realistic challenges would require an improbable clearing of skies and calm winds before dawn, potentially allowing a dip to 24°C, though historical analogs show such deviations occur infrequently in this period.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题