Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance point to elevated Gulf moisture and scattered showers or thunderstorms on September 2 as the main driver keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, supporting minimum temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s rather than deeper cooling. With a weak low-pressure area drifting westward across the north-central Gulf, increased cloud cover and humidity are expected to hold lows near 76–81 °F, close to early-September climatology. Trader emphasis on the 74–75 °F bin reflects model runs showing slightly stronger nocturnal clearing or lighter winds that could shave a degree or two, while probabilities near 50 % for 71 °F or below capture tail-risk scenarios of greater radiational cooling if convection remains suppressed. Updated NHC and local forecast discussions through the next 24–48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.