Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including ECMWF runs, place Madrid's overnight low for August 22 in the 17–19 °C range, producing the tight market clustering around those outcomes. Key differentiating factors include expected clear skies promoting radiative cooling, light winds limiting boundary-layer mixing, and the city's urban heat-island effect that can add 1–2 °C to minimum readings relative to rural sites. Late-August climatology shows average lows near 18 °C, so deviations hinge on small changes in cloud cover or advection within the final model updates. Trader consensus aggregates these probabilistic spreads, recognizing that even minor forecast adjustments before resolution can shift probabilities among the leading bins.