Recent National Weather Service model runs indicate a mild southerly flow and elevated dew points will limit overnight radiative cooling across the New York City metro, pushing the daily minimum temperature into the mid- to upper-60s Fahrenheit on May 18. This consensus, supported by limited cloud cover and light winds, underpins trader focus on the 66-67°F bin at 34% implied probability, with secondary clustering around 64-65°F and 68-69°F reflecting minor variations in boundary-layer mixing. Key variables include the strength of the incoming warm air mass, exact timing of any frontal passage, and local urban heat-island effects that can raise minimum readings by 2-4°F relative to surrounding suburbs. Historical May climatology shows typical Central Park lows near 53°F, yet current short-range guidance deviates notably warmer, sustaining the broad distribution across bins from 60°F upward while keeping sub-60°F outcomes below 3% combined.