Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月13日上海最低气温？
8月13日上海最低气温？
26°C 100.0%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 交易量
$21,023 交易量
2026-08-13
21°C或以下
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
是
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C或更高
否
26°C 100.0%
21°C或以下 <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 交易量
$21,023 交易量
2026-08-13
21°C或以下
$504 交易量
否
22°C
$614 交易量
否
23°C
$415 交易量
否
24°C
$1,551 交易量
否
25°C
$3,429 交易量
否
26°C
$6,807 交易量
是
27°C
$4,506 交易量
否
28°C
$1,731 交易量
否
29°C
$320 交易量
否
30°C
$445 交易量
否
31°C或更高
$702 交易量
否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$21,023结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$21,023结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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