**Current forecasts from meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026, under typical subtropical monsoon conditions with passing showers and overcast skies moderating overnight cooling.** This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability for 25°C, as trader consensus reflects aggregated model outputs showing the daily low settling near this threshold rather than the 26–27°C climatological average for August. Recent developments, including persistent cloud cover and light precipitation, have reduced radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions, keeping the minimum from dropping further while preventing it from remaining as warm as 26°C or higher. Historical baselines for Shenzhen in late August support this range, with official data typically recording minima of 25–27°C amid high humidity and weak steering patterns. Realistic challenges include a late-model shift toward clearer skies or drier air allowing the temperature to hold at 26°C, or an unexpected influx of cooler northerly flow pushing it to 24°C—though current consensus across forecasts makes these lower-probability outcomes. Updated observations through the evening will be key for final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月21日深圳最低气温？
8月21日深圳最低气温？
25°C 95%
24°C 5%
26°C 3.8%
23°C or below <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
23°C or below
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
95%
26°C
4%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
25°C 95%
24°C 5%
26°C 3.8%
23°C or below <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
23°C or below
$164 交易量
1%
24°C
$5 交易量
5%
25°C
$172 交易量
95%
26°C
$541 交易量
4%
27°C
$190 交易量
1%
28°C
$105 交易量
1%
29°C
$80 交易量
<1%
30°C
$80 交易量
<1%
31°C
$80 交易量
<1%
32°C
$105 交易量
<1%
33°C or higher
$105 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026, under typical subtropical monsoon conditions with passing showers and overcast skies moderating overnight cooling.**
This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability for 25°C, as trader consensus reflects aggregated model outputs showing the daily low settling near this threshold rather than the 26–27°C climatological average for August. Recent developments, including persistent cloud cover and light precipitation, have reduced radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions, keeping the minimum from dropping further while preventing it from remaining as warm as 26°C or higher.
Historical baselines for Shenzhen in late August support this range, with official data typically recording minima of 25–27°C amid high humidity and weak steering patterns.
Realistic challenges include a late-model shift toward clearer skies or drier air allowing the temperature to hold at 26°C, or an unexpected influx of cooler northerly flow pushing it to 24°C—though current consensus across forecasts makes these lower-probability outcomes. Updated observations through the evening will be key for final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
交易量
$1,627结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026, under typical subtropical monsoon conditions with passing showers and overcast skies moderating overnight cooling.**
This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability for 25°C, as trader consensus reflects aggregated model outputs showing the daily low settling near this threshold rather than the 26–27°C climatological average for August. Recent developments, including persistent cloud cover and light precipitation, have reduced radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions, keeping the minimum from dropping further while preventing it from remaining as warm as 26°C or higher.
Historical baselines for Shenzhen in late August support this range, with official data typically recording minima of 25–27°C amid high humidity and weak steering patterns.
Realistic challenges include a late-model shift toward clearer skies or drier air allowing the temperature to hold at 26°C, or an unexpected influx of cooler northerly flow pushing it to 24°C—though current consensus across forecasts makes these lower-probability outcomes. Updated observations through the evening will be key for final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,627结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET**Current forecasts from meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature of 25°C in Shenzhen on August 21, 2026, under typical subtropical monsoon conditions with passing showers and overcast skies moderating overnight cooling.** This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability for 25°C, as trader consensus reflects aggregated model outputs showing the daily low settling near this threshold rather than the 26–27°C climatological average for August. Recent developments, including persistent cloud cover and light precipitation, have reduced radiative cooling compared to clearer conditions, keeping the minimum from dropping further while preventing it from remaining as warm as 26°C or higher. Historical baselines for Shenzhen in late August support this range, with official data typically recording minima of 25–27°C amid high humidity and weak steering patterns. Realistic challenges include a late-model shift toward clearer skies or drier air allowing the temperature to hold at 26°C, or an unexpected influx of cooler northerly flow pushing it to 24°C—though current consensus across forecasts makes these lower-probability outcomes. Updated observations through the evening will be key for final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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