Recent polling ahead of Malta's May 30 snap parliamentary election shows the Labour Party maintaining a lead over the Nationalist Party that has stabilized in the 6- to 12-percentage-point range across multiple surveys. This positioning explains why traders have assigned the highest probability to a Labour victory margin of 5-10 percent, with the next tier concentrated on sub-5 percent or 10-15 percent outcomes. The compressed five-week campaign following the April dissolution has limited major shifts, while historical patterns of high turnout in Malta's proportional representation system and the opposition's challenges in converting support into a decisive challenge reinforce expectations of a moderate rather than decisive gap. Upcoming final polls and early voting through May 26 remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before results are known.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Labour Party 5-10% 47%
Labour Party <5% 20%
Labour Party 10-15% 19%
Other 7.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-30
Labour Party 25%+
<1%
Labour Party 20-25%
2%
Labour Party 15-20%
6%
Labour Party 10-15%
19%
Labour Party 5-10%
47%
Labour Party <5%
20%
Other
7%
Labour Party 5-10% 47%
Labour Party <5% 20%
Labour Party 10-15% 19%
Other 7.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-30
Labour Party 25%+
$411 交易量
<1%
Labour Party 20-25%
$767 交易量
2%
Labour Party 15-20%
$498 交易量
6%
Labour Party 10-15%
$495 交易量
19%
Labour Party 5-10%
$1,402 交易量
47%
Labour Party <5%
$711 交易量
20%
Other
$616 交易量
7%
General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).Recent polling ahead of Malta's May 30 snap parliamentary election shows the Labour Party maintaining a lead over the Nationalist Party that has stabilized in the 6- to 12-percentage-point range across multiple surveys. This positioning explains why traders have assigned the highest probability to a Labour victory margin of 5-10 percent, with the next tier concentrated on sub-5 percent or 10-15 percent outcomes. The compressed five-week campaign following the April dissolution has limited major shifts, while historical patterns of high turnout in Malta's proportional representation system and the opposition's challenges in converting support into a decisive challenge reinforce expectations of a moderate rather than decisive gap. Upcoming final polls and early voting through May 26 remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before results are known.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
交易量
$4,900结束日期
2026-05-30市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).Recent polling ahead of Malta's May 30 snap parliamentary election shows the Labour Party maintaining a lead over the Nationalist Party that has stabilized in the 6- to 12-percentage-point range across multiple surveys. This positioning explains why traders have assigned the highest probability to a Labour victory margin of 5-10 percent, with the next tier concentrated on sub-5 percent or 10-15 percent outcomes. The compressed five-week campaign following the April dissolution has limited major shifts, while historical patterns of high turnout in Malta's proportional representation system and the opposition's challenges in converting support into a decisive challenge reinforce expectations of a moderate rather than decisive gap. Upcoming final polls and early voting through May 26 remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before results are known.
General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).
交易量
$4,900结束日期
2026-05-30市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling ahead of Malta's May 30 snap parliamentary election shows the Labour Party maintaining a lead over the Nationalist Party that has stabilized in the 6- to 12-percentage-point range across multiple surveys. This positioning explains why traders have assigned the highest probability to a Labour victory margin of 5-10 percent, with the next tier concentrated on sub-5 percent or 10-15 percent outcomes. The compressed five-week campaign following the April dissolution has limited major shifts, while historical patterns of high turnout in Malta's proportional representation system and the opposition's challenges in converting support into a decisive challenge reinforce expectations of a moderate rather than decisive gap. Upcoming final polls and early voting through May 26 remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before results are known.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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