Virginia Democrats advanced a mid-decade redistricting effort in early 2026, securing legislative approval and voter passage of a constitutional amendment in April that would have enabled a new map projected to deliver Democrats 10 of the state's 11 House seats. The Virginia Supreme Court struck down the amendment on May 8, 2026, citing procedural violations of the state constitution's intervening-election requirement, leaving the 2021 court-drawn map in place. Subsequent appeals, including to the U.S. Supreme Court, did not alter the outcome. With the November 2026 midterms approaching and primaries already completed under the existing lines, traders assign overwhelming probability against a new map, reflecting the binding court rulings and limited remaining procedural options. Further legal reversals or extraordinary legislative maneuvers represent the narrowest paths that could still shift the result before election day.