Trader consensus assigns the Liberal Party (PL) a dominant 78.5 percent probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its strong national organization and leading or competitive candidates across multiple states. Recent party switches have expanded PL’s congressional bloc ahead of the one-third renewal of the 81-seat chamber, while the April candidate deadline locked in prominent right-leaning contenders backed by its structure. Other parties such as PSD, UNIÃO, PODEMOS, and PT show far lower implied probabilities because of weaker statewide consolidation and greater fragmentation in key races. The market reflects these structural dynamics in a multi-party contest where no challenger has demonstrated comparable momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PL 71%
社会民主党（PSD） 5.7%
UNIÃO 3.7%
劳工党（PT） 2.9%
$253,953 交易量
$253,953 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
77%
社会民主党（PSD）
6%
UNIÃO
4%
劳工党（PT）
3%
我们可以党
2%
共和党
1%
巴西民主运动党（MDB）
1%
巴西社会党（PSB）
1%
NOVO
1%
PSDB
<1%
进步党（PP）
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 71%
社会民主党（PSD） 5.7%
UNIÃO 3.7%
劳工党（PT） 2.9%
$253,953 交易量
$253,953 交易量
2026-10-04
PL
$242,655 交易量
77%
社会民主党（PSD）
$1,046 交易量
6%
UNIÃO
$958 交易量
4%
劳工党（PT）
$1,040 交易量
3%
我们可以党
$1,156 交易量
2%
共和党
$1,080 交易量
1%
巴西民主运动党（MDB）
$1,012 交易量
1%
巴西社会党（PSB）
$1,071 交易量
1%
NOVO
$1,134 交易量
1%
PSDB
$1,023 交易量
<1%
进步党（PP）
$935 交易量
<1%
PDT
$843 交易量
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus assigns the Liberal Party (PL) a dominant 78.5 percent probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its strong national organization and leading or competitive candidates across multiple states. Recent party switches have expanded PL’s congressional bloc ahead of the one-third renewal of the 81-seat chamber, while the April candidate deadline locked in prominent right-leaning contenders backed by its structure. Other parties such as PSD, UNIÃO, PODEMOS, and PT show far lower implied probabilities because of weaker statewide consolidation and greater fragmentation in key races. The market reflects these structural dynamics in a multi-party contest where no challenger has demonstrated comparable momentum.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$253,953结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus assigns the Liberal Party (PL) a dominant 78.5 percent probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its strong national organization and leading or competitive candidates across multiple states. Recent party switches have expanded PL’s congressional bloc ahead of the one-third renewal of the 81-seat chamber, while the April candidate deadline locked in prominent right-leaning contenders backed by its structure. Other parties such as PSD, UNIÃO, PODEMOS, and PT show far lower implied probabilities because of weaker statewide consolidation and greater fragmentation in key races. The market reflects these structural dynamics in a multi-party contest where no challenger has demonstrated comparable momentum.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$253,953结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the Liberal Party (PL) a dominant 78.5 percent probability of securing the most seats in Brazil’s October 2026 Senate election, reflecting its strong national organization and leading or competitive candidates across multiple states. Recent party switches have expanded PL’s congressional bloc ahead of the one-third renewal of the 81-seat chamber, while the April candidate deadline locked in prominent right-leaning contenders backed by its structure. Other parties such as PSD, UNIÃO, PODEMOS, and PT show far lower implied probabilities because of weaker statewide consolidation and greater fragmentation in key races. The market reflects these structural dynamics in a multi-party contest where no challenger has demonstrated comparable momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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