Abundant U.S. table-egg supply from a rebuilt laying flock exceeding 315 million hens has driven retail prices for a dozen large eggs into the low-to-mid $2 range through August 2026, with USDA data showing year-over-year declines near 28% amid record productivity and modest export demand. This oversupply dynamic supports the market-implied clustering around $2.10–$2.30, though feed, fuel, and labor costs establish a firm floor preventing deeper declines. Heightened highly pathogenic avian influenza risk during the September–November fall migration introduces meaningful upside volatility, as even modest new detections can tighten supply within weeks and shift pricing toward the upper end of the observed range. Trader consensus reflects this balance of structural abundance against seasonal biosecurity uncertainty, with no single outcome exceeding 40% implied probability.