The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年6月30日前不进行IPO 98.3%
1000–1200亿 <1%
1400亿美元以上 <1%
800–1000亿美元 <1%
$168,649 交易量
$168,649 交易量
2026-06-30
低于800亿美元
<1%
800–1000亿美元
1%
1000–1200亿
1%
1200–1400亿
<1%
1400亿美元以上
1%
2026年6月30日前不进行IPO
98%
2026年6月30日前不进行IPO 98.3%
1000–1200亿 <1%
1400亿美元以上 <1%
800–1000亿美元 <1%
$168,649 交易量
$168,649 交易量
2026-06-30
低于800亿美元
$71,585 交易量
<1%
800–1000亿美元
$14,561 交易量
1%
1000–1200亿
$16,230 交易量
1%
1200–1400亿
$33,005 交易量
<1%
1400亿美元以上
$14,561 交易量
1%
2026年6月30日前不进行IPO
$18,707 交易量
98%
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ET
交易量
$168,649结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
This market will resolve based on Stripe's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Stripe’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$168,649结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 98.3% market-implied probability of no Stripe IPO closing by June 30, 2026, stems from the standard multi-month U.S. listing process following the company’s updated S-1 filing on May 15, 2026, which targets an approximately $90 billion valuation. Stripe’s February 2026 tender offer at $159 billion and reported profitability in 2024–2025 underscore solid fundamentals, yet the compressed six-week window leaves insufficient time for roadshow execution, regulatory review, and investor marketing. Traders are pricing in historical IPO timelines and the absence of any announced listing date. An unusually expedited process amid favorable equity-market conditions could theoretically shift odds, though such acceleration remains improbable given current regulatory and operational realities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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