**September tornado activity in the US typically averages around 66 confirmed reports, driven mainly by occasional tropical cyclone landfalls in the South or sporadic mid-latitude systems rather than peak springtime outbreaks.** As of mid-month, confirmed events remain limited to isolated weak tornadoes, including an EF-0 in Surry County, Virginia, on September 12 and an EF-1 in Pennsylvania earlier in the period, with no widespread outbreaks reported. Official SPC convective outlooks through September 15–16 indicate only marginal or slight severe risks across the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and central Plains, featuring modest instability and shear insufficient for high tornado probabilities. Climatologically, the absence of recent Gulf moisture surges or organized tropical remnants has kept conditions suppressed, consistent with historical patterns where non-tropical September totals often fall below seasonal norms. Model consensus and ongoing monitoring show no imminent shift toward elevated activity, supporting trader emphasis on the 25–49 and 50–74 ranges as the most probable outcomes given current trends and the remaining forecast window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月美国龙卷风
2026年9月美国龙卷风
125个或更多 95%
25 - 49 56%
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 22%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
3%
25 - 49
56%
50 - 74
52%
75 - 124
22%
125个或更多
95%
125个或更多 95%
25 - 49 56%
50 - 74 52%
75 - 124 22%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
$30 交易量
3%
25 - 49
$0 交易量
56%
50 - 74
$0 交易量
52%
75 - 124
$0 交易量
22%
125个或更多
$45 交易量
95%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**September tornado activity in the US typically averages around 66 confirmed reports, driven mainly by occasional tropical cyclone landfalls in the South or sporadic mid-latitude systems rather than peak springtime outbreaks.** As of mid-month, confirmed events remain limited to isolated weak tornadoes, including an EF-0 in Surry County, Virginia, on September 12 and an EF-1 in Pennsylvania earlier in the period, with no widespread outbreaks reported. Official SPC convective outlooks through September 15–16 indicate only marginal or slight severe risks across the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and central Plains, featuring modest instability and shear insufficient for high tornado probabilities.
Climatologically, the absence of recent Gulf moisture surges or organized tropical remnants has kept conditions suppressed, consistent with historical patterns where non-tropical September totals often fall below seasonal norms. Model consensus and ongoing monitoring show no imminent shift toward elevated activity, supporting trader emphasis on the 25–49 and 50–74 ranges as the most probable outcomes given current trends and the remaining forecast window.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
交易量
$75结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**September tornado activity in the US typically averages around 66 confirmed reports, driven mainly by occasional tropical cyclone landfalls in the South or sporadic mid-latitude systems rather than peak springtime outbreaks.** As of mid-month, confirmed events remain limited to isolated weak tornadoes, including an EF-0 in Surry County, Virginia, on September 12 and an EF-1 in Pennsylvania earlier in the period, with no widespread outbreaks reported. Official SPC convective outlooks through September 15–16 indicate only marginal or slight severe risks across the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and central Plains, featuring modest instability and shear insufficient for high tornado probabilities.
Climatologically, the absence of recent Gulf moisture surges or organized tropical remnants has kept conditions suppressed, consistent with historical patterns where non-tropical September totals often fall below seasonal norms. Model consensus and ongoing monitoring show no imminent shift toward elevated activity, supporting trader emphasis on the 25–49 and 50–74 ranges as the most probable outcomes given current trends and the remaining forecast window.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$75结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET**September tornado activity in the US typically averages around 66 confirmed reports, driven mainly by occasional tropical cyclone landfalls in the South or sporadic mid-latitude systems rather than peak springtime outbreaks.** As of mid-month, confirmed events remain limited to isolated weak tornadoes, including an EF-0 in Surry County, Virginia, on September 12 and an EF-1 in Pennsylvania earlier in the period, with no widespread outbreaks reported. Official SPC convective outlooks through September 15–16 indicate only marginal or slight severe risks across the Ohio Valley, Northeast, and central Plains, featuring modest instability and shear insufficient for high tornado probabilities. Climatologically, the absence of recent Gulf moisture surges or organized tropical remnants has kept conditions suppressed, consistent with historical patterns where non-tropical September totals often fall below seasonal norms. Model consensus and ongoing monitoring show no imminent shift toward elevated activity, supporting trader emphasis on the 25–49 and 50–74 ranges as the most probable outcomes given current trends and the remaining forecast window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题