Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$321,225 交易量
2026-10-04
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
84%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
72%
费尔南多·阿达
8%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
3%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
3%
$321,225 交易量
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$135,114 交易量
84%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$20,621 交易量
72%
费尔南多·阿达
$51,472 交易量
8%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$26,646 交易量
4%
雅伊尔·博索纳罗
$11,325 交易量
3%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$76,048 交易量
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET
交易量
$321,225结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$321,225结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father’s endorsement consolidated right-wing support. Recent polling shows the pair statistically tied in simulated runoffs, with Lula holding a narrow first-round edge amid concerns over economic growth, public security, and his age. Other declared candidates, including Romeu Zema of NOVO and Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD, remain in single digits and could fragment conservative votes or influence coalition dynamics ahead of the potential October 25 runoff. Trader focus centers on whether endorsements from state governors or late economic data will shift first-round positioning before ballots close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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