Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Iran hostilities since late February, commercial ship transits have plummeted to 28% of normal levels—recent IMF Portwatch data shows daily arrivals as low as 4 versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 130—driving a persistent geopolitical risk premium across energy benchmarks. Brent crude oscillates between $95 and $105 per barrel, reflecting fears over 21% of global seaborne oil flows, while very large crude carrier spot rates have surged 70% to Worldscale 85 and war risk insurance premiums spiked 30-fold to 4.5% of hull value. US Operation Project Freedom escorts enabled 10 transits on May 4, but Iranian vetting protocols and attacks stalled recovery; key catalysts include the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit on China-Iran oil ties and UN ceasefire pushes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$372,433 交易量
2026-05-31
20+
47%
40+
17%
60+
12%
80+
9%
$372,433 交易量
20+
$78,091 交易量
47%
40+
$94,529 交易量
17%
60+
$58,611 交易量
12%
80+
$141,314 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Iran hostilities since late February, commercial ship transits have plummeted to 28% of normal levels—recent IMF Portwatch data shows daily arrivals as low as 4 versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 130—driving a persistent geopolitical risk premium across energy benchmarks. Brent crude oscillates between $95 and $105 per barrel, reflecting fears over 21% of global seaborne oil flows, while very large crude carrier spot rates have surged 70% to Worldscale 85 and war risk insurance premiums spiked 30-fold to 4.5% of hull value. US Operation Project Freedom escorts enabled 10 transits on May 4, but Iranian vetting protocols and attacks stalled recovery; key catalysts include the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit on China-Iran oil ties and UN ceasefire pushes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
交易量
$372,433结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Iran hostilities since late February, commercial ship transits have plummeted to 28% of normal levels—recent IMF Portwatch data shows daily arrivals as low as 4 versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 130—driving a persistent geopolitical risk premium across energy benchmarks. Brent crude oscillates between $95 and $105 per barrel, reflecting fears over 21% of global seaborne oil flows, while very large crude carrier spot rates have surged 70% to Worldscale 85 and war risk insurance premiums spiked 30-fold to 4.5% of hull value. US Operation Project Freedom escorts enabled 10 transits on May 4, but Iranian vetting protocols and attacks stalled recovery; key catalysts include the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit on China-Iran oil ties and UN ceasefire pushes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$372,433结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by US-Iran hostilities since late February, commercial ship transits have plummeted to 28% of normal levels—recent IMF Portwatch data shows daily arrivals as low as 4 versus pre-crisis averages exceeding 130—driving a persistent geopolitical risk premium across energy benchmarks. Brent crude oscillates between $95 and $105 per barrel, reflecting fears over 21% of global seaborne oil flows, while very large crude carrier spot rates have surged 70% to Worldscale 85 and war risk insurance premiums spiked 30-fold to 4.5% of hull value. US Operation Project Freedom escorts enabled 10 transits on May 4, but Iranian vetting protocols and attacks stalled recovery; key catalysts include the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit on China-Iran oil ties and UN ceasefire pushes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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