**Traders see virtually no chance of a Trump handshake with an Iranian official by the June 20 deadline, pricing “No” at 92.5%.** The four-day window leaves little room for a high-level bilateral encounter. A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was reached around June 15 to end recent hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a 60-day ceasefire framework, with a formal signing ceremony set for June 19 in Switzerland. Reports indicate the document has been handled through negotiators or virtual/electronic signatures by Trump and Iranian counterparts such as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, without any scheduled in-person meeting between the U.S. president and senior Iranian officials. Recent diplomatic activity has focused on mediated talks and lower-level or virtual channels rather than direct presidential engagement. No announcements or credible reporting point to a summit, delegation visit, or ceremonial event in the immediate term that would produce a handshake. Historical precedent and the current post-conflict context further reduce the likelihood of an unplanned or symbolic personal interaction within the tight resolution window.