Current ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers point to a strong likelihood of Warsaw’s maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 19 °C on May 18, driven by a southerly airflow advecting warmer air masses across central Poland under mostly clear skies. Model consensus shows daytime highs centered near 19–21 °C, consistent with the rapid seasonal climb typical for mid-May when solar insolation strengthens and daytime heating peaks. While a few runs suggest a brief marine-air intrusion could cap readings near 18 °C, the probability-weighted guidance favors the upper end of the range. Traders are therefore pricing the 19 °C threshold at 68 percent as the dominant outcome ahead of the final 48-hour model updates.