**Persistent high pressure and easterly flow are anchoring overnight lows near 80–82°F across Miami, aligning with the market's top outcomes of 82–83°F (46%) and 80–81°F (29%).** National Weather Service guidance and AccuWeather models project mostly clear conditions on August 15–16 night with minimums around 81–82°F, reflecting typical August climatology where average lows reach 80°F amid high humidity and sea-surface temperatures in the mid-80s. Elevated dew points limit radiational cooling despite light winds, while the lack of frontal passages or cold-air advection keeps temperatures from dropping into the upper 70s or below. Recent model runs show minimal spread, with only slight variations from steering patterns or localized showers, supporting the combined ~92% implied probability for 80–85°F. The next NWS update and any revised overnight observations will likely be the primary near-term drivers for shifts in these probabilities.