Giorgia Meloni’s center-right coalition maintains a stable parliamentary majority, with no scheduled confidence votes or coalition fractures reported in recent weeks. The March 2026 justice referendum defeat prompted resignations of key officials but did not trigger broader instability, and her government has since focused on energy security measures and diplomatic outreach amid regional tensions. Traders assign a 97 percent probability she remains prime minister through June 30 because historical patterns show Italian coalitions rarely collapse without acute parliamentary triggers, and next year’s general elections incentivize partners to preserve the current arrangement. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden no-confidence motion or major scandal could still shift odds, though none appear imminent based on current legislative calendars.