Flávio Bolsonaro’s dominant positioning in first-round polling reflects his role as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and endorsed heir to the right-wing movement following Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Atlas show him consistently second behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, consolidating conservative support while alternatives such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain fragmented in single digits. Lula’s incumbency advantage and first-round leads around 38–48% make a second-place finish unlikely for him. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks stable polling trends, candidate registration deadlines, and limited momentum shifts for lower-polling contenders in the weeks before the October 4 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.1%
Renan Santos 6.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,607,396 Vol.
$4,607,396 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 8.1%
Renan Santos 6.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,607,396 Vol.
$4,607,396 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
8%
Renan Santos
6%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro’s dominant positioning in first-round polling reflects his role as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and endorsed heir to the right-wing movement following Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. Recent surveys from Quaest, Datafolha, and Atlas show him consistently second behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, consolidating conservative support while alternatives such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain fragmented in single digits. Lula’s incumbency advantage and first-round leads around 38–48% make a second-place finish unlikely for him. Trader consensus on these probabilities tracks stable polling trends, candidate registration deadlines, and limited momentum shifts for lower-polling contenders in the weeks before the October 4 vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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