Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration show a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula directing warm southerly flow toward Busan, producing mostly clear skies and supporting daytime highs near 30–32 °C at Gimhae International Airport, the official resolution station. Coastal moderation from the East Sea and potential afternoon sea-breeze development introduce modest uncertainty in the exact peak, while ensemble model spreads highlight small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing that separate the closely priced 30 °C, 31 °C, and 32 °C outcomes. Above-average May warmth driven by these synoptic conditions has compressed probability mass into the 30–32 °C range, with traders assigning the largest share to 31 °C amid limited further model updates before resolution.