The latest India Meteorological Department short-range forecast, issued May 16, anchors the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Lucknow maximum of 41 °C or below on May 17 by projecting a peak near 41–42 °C under mainly clear skies with light winds. Pre-monsoon heating across the Indo-Gangetic Plain remains the seasonal baseline, yet above-normal May rainfall and lingering moisture from recent western-disturbance activity have limited daytime radiative warming and kept surface temperatures near climatological norms of 39–42 °C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification potential, with no strong heat-wave setup expected before the next observational cycle resolves the contract. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow window around the official forecast threshold rather than historical extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Lucknow el 17 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Lucknow el 17 de mayo?
41°C or below 70%
42°C 17%
43°C 7.2%
44°C 2.6%
NUEVO
$15,631 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,631 Vol.
17 may 2026
41°C or below
70%
42°C
17%
43°C
7%
44°C
3%
45°C
<1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C
<1%
51°C or higher
<1%
41°C or below 70%
42°C 17%
43°C 7.2%
44°C 2.6%
NUEVO
$15,631 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,631 Vol.
17 may 2026
41°C or below
$1,643 Vol.
70%
42°C
$1,424 Vol.
17%
43°C
$976 Vol.
7%
44°C
$1,235 Vol.
3%
45°C
$1,876 Vol.
<1%
46°C
$1,991 Vol.
<1%
47°C
$1,353 Vol.
<1%
48°C
$2,388 Vol.
<1%
49°C
$798 Vol.
<1%
50°C
$861 Vol.
<1%
51°C or higher
$1,086 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest India Meteorological Department short-range forecast, issued May 16, anchors the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Lucknow maximum of 41 °C or below on May 17 by projecting a peak near 41–42 °C under mainly clear skies with light winds. Pre-monsoon heating across the Indo-Gangetic Plain remains the seasonal baseline, yet above-normal May rainfall and lingering moisture from recent western-disturbance activity have limited daytime radiative warming and kept surface temperatures near climatological norms of 39–42 °C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification potential, with no strong heat-wave setup expected before the next observational cycle resolves the contract. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow window around the official forecast threshold rather than historical extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$15,631Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The latest India Meteorological Department short-range forecast, issued May 16, anchors the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Lucknow maximum of 41 °C or below on May 17 by projecting a peak near 41–42 °C under mainly clear skies with light winds. Pre-monsoon heating across the Indo-Gangetic Plain remains the seasonal baseline, yet above-normal May rainfall and lingering moisture from recent western-disturbance activity have limited daytime radiative warming and kept surface temperatures near climatological norms of 39–42 °C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification potential, with no strong heat-wave setup expected before the next observational cycle resolves the contract. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow window around the official forecast threshold rather than historical extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$15,631Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKThe latest India Meteorological Department short-range forecast, issued May 16, anchors the 69.5% market-implied probability for a Lucknow maximum of 41 °C or below on May 17 by projecting a peak near 41–42 °C under mainly clear skies with light winds. Pre-monsoon heating across the Indo-Gangetic Plain remains the seasonal baseline, yet above-normal May rainfall and lingering moisture from recent western-disturbance activity have limited daytime radiative warming and kept surface temperatures near climatological norms of 39–42 °C. Model consensus shows minimal intensification potential, with no strong heat-wave setup expected before the next observational cycle resolves the contract. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow window around the official forecast threshold rather than historical extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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