Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en París el 18 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en París el 18 de mayo?
8°C 21%
10°C 20%
9°C 16%
7°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
2°C o menos
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
3%
5°C
3%
6°C
3%
7°C
11%
8°C
21%
9°C
23%
10°C
20%
11°C
10%
12°C o más
5%
8°C 21%
10°C 20%
9°C 16%
7°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
2°C o menos
$62 Vol.
1%
3°C
$57 Vol.
1%
4°C
$10 Vol.
3%
5°C
$10 Vol.
3%
6°C
$10 Vol.
3%
7°C
$22 Vol.
11%
8°C
$10 Vol.
21%
9°C
$29 Vol.
23%
10°C
$10 Vol.
20%
11°C
$10 Vol.
10%
12°C o más
$118 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$348Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$348Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 8–10°C for Paris's lowest temperature on May 18, driven by Météo-France's latest guidance and ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS showing overnight minimums in the 8–11°C range amid a persistent cool, humid pattern over Île-de-France. Recent unstable weather through May 11–17, with northerly flows and frequent showers, has suppressed temperatures below May climatological norms of ~10°C lows, favoring radiative cooling under partly clearing skies but limited by residual cloud cover and urban heat island effects at the Paris-Montsouris station. Key differentiators include model spread on nocturnal low-level stability and dewpoint depressions; fuller cloudiness could hold mins at 10°C+, while clearer conditions tip toward 8°C. Watch 12Z model updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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