Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate Warsaw's daily minimum temperature on September 19 will likely fall in the 11–14°C range, driven by light southwest winds, increasing high cloud cover, and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling overnight. Recent observations show September averages near 11–13°C minima, with current high pressure supporting stable conditions rather than sharp drops or warm advection. The near-even market split between sub-6°C and 16°C+ outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the exact low by a few degrees, while narrower buckets cluster around the model consensus near 12°C. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 19 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 19 de septiembre?
6°C o menos 87%
16°C o más 85%
13°C 39%
9°C 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 sep 2026
6°C o menos
87%
7°C
9%
8°C
10%
9°C
34%
10°C
28%
11°C
24%
12°C
22%
13°C
39%
14°C
19%
15°C
17%
16°C o más
85%
6°C o menos 87%
16°C o más 85%
13°C 39%
9°C 34%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 sep 2026
6°C o menos
$0 Vol.
87%
7°C
$0 Vol.
9%
8°C
$0 Vol.
10%
9°C
$0 Vol.
34%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
24%
12°C
$34 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$56 Vol.
17%
16°C o más
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate Warsaw's daily minimum temperature on September 19 will likely fall in the 11–14°C range, driven by light southwest winds, increasing high cloud cover, and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling overnight. Recent observations show September averages near 11–13°C minima, with current high pressure supporting stable conditions rather than sharp drops or warm advection. The near-even market split between sub-6°C and 16°C+ outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the exact low by a few degrees, while narrower buckets cluster around the model consensus near 12°C. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
19 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate Warsaw's daily minimum temperature on September 19 will likely fall in the 11–14°C range, driven by light southwest winds, increasing high cloud cover, and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling overnight. Recent observations show September averages near 11–13°C minima, with current high pressure supporting stable conditions rather than sharp drops or warm advection. The near-even market split between sub-6°C and 16°C+ outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the exact low by a few degrees, while narrower buckets cluster around the model consensus near 12°C. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$90Fecha de finalización
19 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, ICON-EU, and GFS models indicate Warsaw's daily minimum temperature on September 19 will likely fall in the 11–14°C range, driven by light southwest winds, increasing high cloud cover, and moderate humidity limiting radiative cooling overnight. Recent observations show September averages near 11–13°C minima, with current high pressure supporting stable conditions rather than sharp drops or warm advection. The near-even market split between sub-6°C and 16°C+ outcomes reflects trader uncertainty over small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the exact low by a few degrees, while narrower buckets cluster around the model consensus near 12°C. Updated runs tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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