The 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano federal by-election, scheduled for August 31, features Liberal candidate Braeden Caley as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments. Caley, nominated in July after serving as deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister Mark Carney, benefits from the riding’s consistent Liberal support in recent federal contests and the party’s organizational resources in a traditionally competitive British Columbia seat previously held by Jonathan Wilkinson. Conservative nominee Stephen Curran and candidates from the NDP, Green, and other parties have been confirmed, yet limited polling visibility and the short campaign window reinforce expectations of continuity with the prior result. Scenarios that could alter the outcome remain narrow and would require late developments such as a significant scandal, sharp turnout shift, or unforeseen national political event before voting day.