The recent September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—along with updated projections showing a 4.1% median endpoint for year-end, anchors the elevated 91% market-implied probability of at least one additional increase before December. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.4%, combined with resilient 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has shifted the Committee toward further tightening, as reflected in 16 of 18 officials’ dots and futures pricing near 88% odds of another move. Treasury yields, including the 2-year above 4.7%, reinforce this hawkish repricing. Still, faster disinflation from easing energy prices tied to geopolitical stabilization or an unexpected labor-market softening could reduce the need for further action at the October or December meetings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated91% chance
$149,124 Vol.
$149,124 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
91% chance
$149,124 Vol.
$149,124 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—along with updated projections showing a 4.1% median endpoint for year-end, anchors the elevated 91% market-implied probability of at least one additional increase before December. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.4%, combined with resilient 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has shifted the Committee toward further tightening, as reflected in 16 of 18 officials’ dots and futures pricing near 88% odds of another move. Treasury yields, including the 2-year above 4.7%, reinforce this hawkish repricing. Still, faster disinflation from easing energy prices tied to geopolitical stabilization or an unexpected labor-market softening could reduce the need for further action at the October or December meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$149,124End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—along with updated projections showing a 4.1% median endpoint for year-end, anchors the elevated 91% market-implied probability of at least one additional increase before December. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.4%, combined with resilient 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has shifted the Committee toward further tightening, as reflected in 16 of 18 officials’ dots and futures pricing near 88% odds of another move. Treasury yields, including the 2-year above 4.7%, reinforce this hawkish repricing. Still, faster disinflation from easing energy prices tied to geopolitical stabilization or an unexpected labor-market softening could reduce the need for further action at the October or December meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...The recent September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—along with updated projections showing a 4.1% median endpoint for year-end, anchors the elevated 91% market-implied probability of at least one additional increase before December. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE at 3.7% and core at 3.4%, combined with resilient 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate, has shifted the Committee toward further tightening, as reflected in 16 of 18 officials’ dots and futures pricing near 88% odds of another move. Treasury yields, including the 2-year above 4.7%, reinforce this hawkish repricing. Still, faster disinflation from easing energy prices tied to geopolitical stabilization or an unexpected labor-market softening could reduce the need for further action at the October or December meetings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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