Recent affirmations by S&P Global Ratings in June 2026 and Fitch Ratings in August 2026, both holding the U.S. at AA+ with stable outlooks, alongside Moody’s Aa1 rating with a similar outlook after its May 2025 downgrade, have reinforced trader expectations against another downgrade before 2027. These assessments highlight U.S. economic resilience, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and tariff revenues helping contain deficits that remain elevated but not sharply worsening. Congressional Budget Office projections of rising debt-to-GDP and a debt-ceiling deadline around mid-2027 introduce longer-term pressures, yet current agency signals and the absence of acute fiscal or political shocks in recent months support the 86.5% implied probability that no further downgrade occurs by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
12% chance
$13,246 Vol.
$13,246 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
$13,246 Vol.
$13,246 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations by S&P Global Ratings in June 2026 and Fitch Ratings in August 2026, both holding the U.S. at AA+ with stable outlooks, alongside Moody’s Aa1 rating with a similar outlook after its May 2025 downgrade, have reinforced trader expectations against another downgrade before 2027. These assessments highlight U.S. economic resilience, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and tariff revenues helping contain deficits that remain elevated but not sharply worsening. Congressional Budget Office projections of rising debt-to-GDP and a debt-ceiling deadline around mid-2027 introduce longer-term pressures, yet current agency signals and the absence of acute fiscal or political shocks in recent months support the 86.5% implied probability that no further downgrade occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$13,246End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent affirmations by S&P Global Ratings in June 2026 and Fitch Ratings in August 2026, both holding the U.S. at AA+ with stable outlooks, alongside Moody’s Aa1 rating with a similar outlook after its May 2025 downgrade, have reinforced trader expectations against another downgrade before 2027. These assessments highlight U.S. economic resilience, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and tariff revenues helping contain deficits that remain elevated but not sharply worsening. Congressional Budget Office projections of rising debt-to-GDP and a debt-ceiling deadline around mid-2027 introduce longer-term pressures, yet current agency signals and the absence of acute fiscal or political shocks in recent months support the 86.5% implied probability that no further downgrade occurs by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$13,246End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent affirmations by S&P Global Ratings in June 2026 and Fitch Ratings in August 2026, both holding the U.S. at AA+ with stable outlooks, alongside Moody’s Aa1 rating with a similar outlook after its May 2025 downgrade, have reinforced trader expectations against another downgrade before 2027. These assessments highlight U.S. economic resilience, the dollar’s reserve-currency status, and tariff revenues helping contain deficits that remain elevated but not sharply worsening. Congressional Budget Office projections of rising debt-to-GDP and a debt-ceiling deadline around mid-2027 introduce longer-term pressures, yet current agency signals and the absence of acute fiscal or political shocks in recent months support the 86.5% implied probability that no further downgrade occurs by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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