**Brazil's Copom has cut the Selic rate by 25 basis points five consecutive times, most recently to 13.75% in mid-September, amid signs of economic deceleration and mixed inflation data.** The Focus survey of economists now projects the year-end Selic at 13.50%, reflecting one additional quarter-point reduction by December as growth forecasts were trimmed and activity indicators softened. However, 2026 IPCA inflation expectations remain elevated near 4.9%—well above the 3% target—while external risks from Middle East conflicts and El Niño add volatility. This combination of cooling domestic demand supporting further easing, yet sticky price pressures and data dependence limiting aggressive moves, underpins trader positioning for a modest December cut as the modal outcome, with a material chance of a pause if inflation reaccelerates.