The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% market-implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% Bank Rate, driven by the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and the need to gauge the pass-through from Middle East energy price shocks that lifted March CPI inflation to 3.3%. While services inflation remains elevated and higher utility costs are expected later in 2026, a loosening labor market and limited evidence of second-round wage pressures have kept near-term tightening expectations contained, capping the probability of a 25 basis point hike at 14.5%. Traders continue to monitor incoming inflation prints and employment data for any shift in the MPC’s data-dependent stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in June?
Bank of England decision in June?
No change 86%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
86%
25 bps increase
15%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 86%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$144,980 Vol.
$144,980 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$24,775 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$25,106 Vol.
<1%
No change
$30,453 Vol.
86%
25 bps increase
$40,774 Vol.
15%
50+ bps increase
$23,872 Vol.
1%
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% market-implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% Bank Rate, driven by the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and the need to gauge the pass-through from Middle East energy price shocks that lifted March CPI inflation to 3.3%. While services inflation remains elevated and higher utility costs are expected later in 2026, a loosening labor market and limited evidence of second-round wage pressures have kept near-term tightening expectations contained, capping the probability of a 25 basis point hike at 14.5%. Traders continue to monitor incoming inflation prints and employment data for any shift in the MPC’s data-dependent stance.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$144,980End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% market-implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% Bank Rate, driven by the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and the need to gauge the pass-through from Middle East energy price shocks that lifted March CPI inflation to 3.3%. While services inflation remains elevated and higher utility costs are expected later in 2026, a loosening labor market and limited evidence of second-round wage pressures have kept near-term tightening expectations contained, capping the probability of a 25 basis point hike at 14.5%. Traders continue to monitor incoming inflation prints and employment data for any shift in the MPC’s data-dependent stance.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$144,980End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England’s June 18 decision carries an 85.5% market-implied probability of no change at the current 3.75% Bank Rate, driven by the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 hold and the need to gauge the pass-through from Middle East energy price shocks that lifted March CPI inflation to 3.3%. While services inflation remains elevated and higher utility costs are expected later in 2026, a loosening labor market and limited evidence of second-round wage pressures have kept near-term tightening expectations contained, capping the probability of a 25 basis point hike at 14.5%. Traders continue to monitor incoming inflation prints and employment data for any shift in the MPC’s data-dependent stance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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