Traders assign Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking a dominant 75% implied probability for the June 20 ranking because its February 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking controls, a 1M-token context window, and state-of-the-art results on Terminal-Bench, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-horizon agentic tasks that remain unmatched in sustained performance. The standard Opus 4.6 variant sits lower as the thinking mode delivers measurable gains in reasoning depth and task autonomy. Claude Fable 5, released June 9, registers only 10% despite early hype, reflecting limited time for benchmark verification and trader caution around new-model stability. Broader competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants keeps the “Other” bucket at 21%, underscoring how recent verified capability edges, rather than announcements alone, shape the tight one-week outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 75%
Other 19%
claude-opus-4-6 17%
claude-fable-5 10%
NEW
NEW
Jun 20, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
75%
Other
19%
claude-opus-4-6
17%
claude-fable-5
10%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 75%
Other 19%
claude-opus-4-6 17%
claude-fable-5 10%
NEW
NEW
Jun 20, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$4 Vol.
75%
Other
$0 Vol.
19%
claude-opus-4-6
$0 Vol.
17%
claude-fable-5
$2 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking a dominant 75% implied probability for the June 20 ranking because its February 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking controls, a 1M-token context window, and state-of-the-art results on Terminal-Bench, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-horizon agentic tasks that remain unmatched in sustained performance. The standard Opus 4.6 variant sits lower as the thinking mode delivers measurable gains in reasoning depth and task autonomy. Claude Fable 5, released June 9, registers only 10% despite early hype, reflecting limited time for benchmark verification and trader caution around new-model stability. Broader competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants keeps the “Other” bucket at 21%, underscoring how recent verified capability edges, rather than announcements alone, shape the tight one-week outlook.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking a dominant 75% implied probability for the June 20 ranking because its February 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking controls, a 1M-token context window, and state-of-the-art results on Terminal-Bench, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-horizon agentic tasks that remain unmatched in sustained performance. The standard Opus 4.6 variant sits lower as the thinking mode delivers measurable gains in reasoning depth and task autonomy. Claude Fable 5, released June 9, registers only 10% despite early hype, reflecting limited time for benchmark verification and trader caution around new-model stability. Broader competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants keeps the “Other” bucket at 21%, underscoring how recent verified capability edges, rather than announcements alone, shape the tight one-week outlook.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5End Date
Jun 20, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking a dominant 75% implied probability for the June 20 ranking because its February 2026 release introduced adaptive thinking controls, a 1M-token context window, and state-of-the-art results on Terminal-Bench, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-horizon agentic tasks that remain unmatched in sustained performance. The standard Opus 4.6 variant sits lower as the thinking mode delivers measurable gains in reasoning depth and task autonomy. Claude Fable 5, released June 9, registers only 10% despite early hype, reflecting limited time for benchmark verification and trader caution around new-model stability. Broader competition from GPT-5.5 and Gemini variants keeps the “Other” bucket at 21%, underscoring how recent verified capability edges, rather than announcements alone, shape the tight one-week outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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