Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because recent polling consistently places him immediately behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified right-wing support behind his son, allowing Flávio to consolidate conservative voters while other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. May surveys from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura show Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with the remainder fragmented. This structure leaves limited room for any other contender to overtake the senator before voting day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17%
Renan Santos 7.7%
Romeu Zema 5.8%
$3,524,000 Vol.
$3,524,000 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
17%
Renan Santos
8%
Romeu Zema
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 17%
Renan Santos 7.7%
Romeu Zema 5.8%
$3,524,000 Vol.
$3,524,000 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$56,396 Vol.
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$67,575 Vol.
17%
Renan Santos
$995,966 Vol.
8%
Romeu Zema
$256,442 Vol.
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$72,836 Vol.
3%
Fernando Haddad
$651,329 Vol.
3%
Camilo Santana
$56,064 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$289,157 Vol.
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$123,364 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$111,040 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$642,631 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$29,825 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$48,401 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$2,260 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$77,363 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$40,500 Vol.
<1%
Tereza Cristina
$2,853 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because recent polling consistently places him immediately behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified right-wing support behind his son, allowing Flávio to consolidate conservative voters while other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. May surveys from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura show Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with the remainder fragmented. This structure leaves limited room for any other contender to overtake the senator before voting day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$3,524,000End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because recent polling consistently places him immediately behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified right-wing support behind his son, allowing Flávio to consolidate conservative voters while other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. May surveys from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura show Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with the remainder fragmented. This structure leaves limited room for any other contender to overtake the senator before voting day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,524,000End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader expectations for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential election because recent polling consistently places him immediately behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Jair Bolsonaro’s December endorsement unified right-wing support behind his son, allowing Flávio to consolidate conservative voters while other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. May surveys from Quaest, Ideia, and Futura show Lula at 38–40 percent and Flávio at 33–37 percent, with the remainder fragmented. This structure leaves limited room for any other contender to overtake the senator before voting day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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