Flávio Bolsonaro holds the strongest position for second place in Brazil's October 2026 first round because he has consolidated right-wing support as the Liberal Party candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro. Recent Quaest and Ideia polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first with roughly 38-40 percent while showing Flávio in a clear second at 33-37 percent, well ahead of fragmented challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. No major new developments have altered this ranking in the past month, leaving the trader consensus aligned with polling trends that point to a polarized two-candidate dynamic once lower-polling names drop out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%
Renan Santos 6.7%
Romeu Zema 6.3%
$3,522,540 Vol.
$3,522,540 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
15%
Renan Santos
7%
Romeu Zema
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
5%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Camilo Santana
2%
Tereza Cristina
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 15%
Renan Santos 6.7%
Romeu Zema 6.3%
$3,522,540 Vol.
$3,522,540 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$56,395 Vol.
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$67,153 Vol.
15%
Renan Santos
$995,076 Vol.
7%
Romeu Zema
$256,381 Vol.
6%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$72,825 Vol.
5%
Fernando Haddad
$651,329 Vol.
3%
Camilo Santana
$56,008 Vol.
2%
Tereza Cristina
$2,848 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$289,157 Vol.
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$123,364 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$111,040 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$642,631 Vol.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$29,825 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$48,401 Vol.
<1%
Helder Barbalho
$2,246 Vol.
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$77,363 Vol.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$40,500 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds the strongest position for second place in Brazil's October 2026 first round because he has consolidated right-wing support as the Liberal Party candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro. Recent Quaest and Ideia polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first with roughly 38-40 percent while showing Flávio in a clear second at 33-37 percent, well ahead of fragmented challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. No major new developments have altered this ranking in the past month, leaving the trader consensus aligned with polling trends that point to a polarized two-candidate dynamic once lower-polling names drop out.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$3,522,540End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds the strongest position for second place in Brazil's October 2026 first round because he has consolidated right-wing support as the Liberal Party candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro. Recent Quaest and Ideia polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first with roughly 38-40 percent while showing Flávio in a clear second at 33-37 percent, well ahead of fragmented challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. No major new developments have altered this ranking in the past month, leaving the trader consensus aligned with polling trends that point to a polarized two-candidate dynamic once lower-polling names drop out.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,522,540End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro holds the strongest position for second place in Brazil's October 2026 first round because he has consolidated right-wing support as the Liberal Party candidate endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro. Recent Quaest and Ideia polls place incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva first with roughly 38-40 percent while showing Flávio in a clear second at 33-37 percent, well ahead of fragmented challengers such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. No major new developments have altered this ranking in the past month, leaving the trader consensus aligned with polling trends that point to a polarized two-candidate dynamic once lower-polling names drop out.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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