Democratic nominee Manny Rutinel holds a strong position in Colorado's 8th congressional district heading into the November general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The district, which features a sizable independent voter base, leans slightly Democratic based on the 2024 presidential results and remains one of the most competitive House seats nationally. Incumbent Republican Gabe Evans flipped the seat by under two points in 2024 after it was created following the 2020 census. Rutinel secured the Democratic nomination in the June 30 primary with a decisive margin over former state Rep. Shannon Bird, unifying the party behind a single challenger. In the current midterm environment, this matchup gives Democrats a clear path to target the seat as part of broader efforts to shift House control, though the narrow historical margins underscore its sensitivity to turnout and late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCO-08 House Election Winner
CO-08 House Election Winner
$14,510 Vol.
$14,510 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
74%
Republican Party
22%
$14,510 Vol.
$14,510 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,895 Vol.
74%
Republican Party
$6,615 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Manny Rutinel holds a strong position in Colorado's 8th congressional district heading into the November general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The district, which features a sizable independent voter base, leans slightly Democratic based on the 2024 presidential results and remains one of the most competitive House seats nationally. Incumbent Republican Gabe Evans flipped the seat by under two points in 2024 after it was created following the 2020 census. Rutinel secured the Democratic nomination in the June 30 primary with a decisive margin over former state Rep. Shannon Bird, unifying the party behind a single challenger. In the current midterm environment, this matchup gives Democrats a clear path to target the seat as part of broader efforts to shift House control, though the narrow historical margins underscore its sensitivity to turnout and late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$14,510End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic nominee Manny Rutinel holds a strong position in Colorado's 8th congressional district heading into the November general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The district, which features a sizable independent voter base, leans slightly Democratic based on the 2024 presidential results and remains one of the most competitive House seats nationally. Incumbent Republican Gabe Evans flipped the seat by under two points in 2024 after it was created following the 2020 census. Rutinel secured the Democratic nomination in the June 30 primary with a decisive margin over former state Rep. Shannon Bird, unifying the party behind a single challenger. In the current midterm environment, this matchup gives Democrats a clear path to target the seat as part of broader efforts to shift House control, though the narrow historical margins underscore its sensitivity to turnout and late-cycle developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,510End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic nominee Manny Rutinel holds a strong position in Colorado's 8th congressional district heading into the November general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party a 73.5% implied probability of victory. The district, which features a sizable independent voter base, leans slightly Democratic based on the 2024 presidential results and remains one of the most competitive House seats nationally. Incumbent Republican Gabe Evans flipped the seat by under two points in 2024 after it was created following the 2020 census. Rutinel secured the Democratic nomination in the June 30 primary with a decisive margin over former state Rep. Shannon Bird, unifying the party behind a single challenger. In the current midterm environment, this matchup gives Democrats a clear path to target the seat as part of broader efforts to shift House control, though the narrow historical margins underscore its sensitivity to turnout and late-cycle developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions