Recent softer-than-expected August inflation readings, with headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures easing modestly, have shifted trader consensus toward a hold at the October 28 FOMC meeting. Following the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and hawkish dot plot signaling further tightening, markets now assign an 81.5% implied probability to no change, down from earlier hike odds near 50%. Strong GDP growth, resilient labor conditions, and persistent inflation above the 2% target continue to anchor expectations for potential December action, while upcoming September CPI and employment data before the meeting represent key swing factors.