This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 3.3%, have kept the federal funds rate target steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, shifting trader focus from cuts to possible hikes amid persistent pressures above the 2% goal. Stable labor market conditions, solid GDP expansion, and Middle East-related supply shocks have reinforced the Fed's patient stance under Chair Warsh, with markets assigning roughly 40-58% odds of a September hike depending on incoming data. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, and subsequent releases on employment and prices will serve as key catalysts, as traders weigh whether moderating trends can still support any near-term easing versus further tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent inflation readings, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 3.3%, have kept the federal funds rate target steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, shifting trader focus from cuts to possible hikes amid persistent pressures above the 2% goal. Stable labor market conditions, solid GDP expansion, and Middle East-related supply shocks have reinforced the Fed's patient stance under Chair Warsh, with markets assigning roughly 40-58% odds of a September hike depending on incoming data. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, and subsequent releases on employment and prices will serve as key catalysts, as traders weigh whether moderating trends can still support any near-term easing versus further tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Aug 30 2026
Federal Reserve Maintains Steady Rates Through August 2026 Amid Mixed Economic Signals
December Meeting drops to 11%5%
The Fed continued to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% through August 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and labor market data. This ongoing pause contributed to the decline in market expectations for rate cuts in the December meeting window.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at July 2026 meeting amid economic stability
December Meeting dips to 11%3%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, reflecting a stable economic outlook and ongoing inflation concerns. This continued the trend of no rate cuts during the analysis period, reinforcing market expectations for a hold.
Jul 28 2026
Federal Reserve maintains rates at July meeting with dissenting votes for hike
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. The committee reaffirmed its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Jul 14 2026
Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress
December Meeting dips to 12%2%
Chairman Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report, outlining the Fed’s views on economic conditions and monetary policy. This report influences market sentiment and investment strategies by providing insights into the Fed’s policy direction.
Jul 9 2026
Federal Reserve Announces Leadership and Objectives of Task Forces to Advance Monetary Policy
December Meeting drops to 14%7%
The Federal Reserve announced the formation of task forces led by external advisers to improve monetary policy conduct. This initiative reflects the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling ongoing efforts to refine policy tools amid economic uncertainties.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 16-17 meeting amid inflation concerns
December Meeting rises to 28%4%
At the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing ongoing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The Fed's cautious stance and data-dependent approach kept market expectations for rate cuts low during this period.
Jun 16 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady amid rising inflation and a strengthening labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a cautious approach, maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%.
May 12 2026
April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
December Meeting dips to 11%4%
April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.
May 11 2026
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data
December Meeting plunges to 11%16%
In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.
May 4 2026
Federal Reserve Signals Policy Direction Following May 2026 Meeting
December Meeting plunges to 47%17%
The Fed's May 2026 meeting reinforced an adaptive monetary policy stance, emphasizing data dependency amid ongoing inflation concerns and labor market strength. Markets reacted to the Fed's cautious signals, which tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at April 28-29 meeting amid disagreement on future easing
December Meeting rises to 66%4%
The Federal Reserve's April 28-29, 2026 meeting resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The vote revealed disagreement among members about the characterization of future easing possibilities, but no rate cuts were made. The Fed continued to monitor economic data closely, signaling a patient approach to monetary policy.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority Support for Rate Hold Amid Solid Economic Expansion
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed most members supported holding rates steady, citing solid economic growth and inflation concerns. The minutes also indicated openness to future cuts if inflation progresses toward target, maintaining policy flexibility.
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 17-18 FOMC meeting amid economic uncertainty
December Meeting drops to 71%8%
At the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, emphasizing elevated uncertainty and continued attention to inflation and employment risks. One member dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut, but the majority opted for a hold, reflecting cautious policy amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical tensions.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC holds rates steady amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty
December Meeting jumps to 27%5%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with inflation data showing a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing a 'higher-for-longer' rate outlook and diminishing near-term cut expectations.
Mar 17 2026
FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty
December Meeting drops to 77%10%
At the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced the cautious approach and lowered market expectations for near-term easing.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March meeting despite political pressure
Despite public calls from former President Trump for an emergency rate cut, the Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% at the March 17-18 meeting, reflecting a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Votes 11-1 to Hold Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in an 11-1 vote to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a cut. The decision reflected concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious policy stance and influencing market expectations for rate cuts later in the year.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Emphasizes Inflation Risks and Labor Market Stability at March Press Conference
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
Following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and a stable labor market, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. His remarks tempered market expectations for immediate easing, contributing to the price decline in the October and September meeting options.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 3.3%, have kept the federal funds rate target steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, shifting trader focus from cuts to possible hikes amid persistent pressures above the 2% goal. Stable labor market conditions, solid GDP expansion, and Middle East-related supply shocks have reinforced the Fed's patient stance under Chair Warsh, with markets assigning roughly 40-58% odds of a September hike depending on incoming data. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, and subsequent releases on employment and prices will serve as key catalysts, as traders weigh whether moderating trends can still support any near-term easing versus further tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent inflation readings, including July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 3.3%, have kept the federal funds rate target steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025, shifting trader focus from cuts to possible hikes amid persistent pressures above the 2% goal. Stable labor market conditions, solid GDP expansion, and Middle East-related supply shocks have reinforced the Fed's patient stance under Chair Warsh, with markets assigning roughly 40-58% odds of a September hike depending on incoming data. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, featuring updated projections, and subsequent releases on employment and prices will serve as key catalysts, as traders weigh whether moderating trends can still support any near-term easing versus further tightening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Aug 30 2026
Federal Reserve Maintains Steady Rates Through August 2026 Amid Mixed Economic Signals
December Meeting drops to 11%5%
The Fed continued to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% through August 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and labor market data. This ongoing pause contributed to the decline in market expectations for rate cuts in the December meeting window.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at July 2026 meeting amid economic stability
December Meeting dips to 11%3%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, reflecting a stable economic outlook and ongoing inflation concerns. This continued the trend of no rate cuts during the analysis period, reinforcing market expectations for a hold.
Jul 28 2026
Federal Reserve maintains rates at July meeting with dissenting votes for hike
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. The committee reaffirmed its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.
Jul 14 2026
Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress
December Meeting dips to 12%2%
Chairman Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report, outlining the Fed’s views on economic conditions and monetary policy. This report influences market sentiment and investment strategies by providing insights into the Fed’s policy direction.
Jul 9 2026
Federal Reserve Announces Leadership and Objectives of Task Forces to Advance Monetary Policy
December Meeting drops to 14%7%
The Federal Reserve announced the formation of task forces led by external advisers to improve monetary policy conduct. This initiative reflects the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling ongoing efforts to refine policy tools amid economic uncertainties.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June 16-17 meeting amid inflation concerns
December Meeting rises to 28%4%
At the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing ongoing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The Fed's cautious stance and data-dependent approach kept market expectations for rate cuts low during this period.
Jun 16 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at June meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady amid rising inflation and a strengthening labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a cautious approach, maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%.
May 12 2026
April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
December Meeting dips to 11%4%
April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.
May 11 2026
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data
December Meeting plunges to 11%16%
In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.
May 4 2026
Federal Reserve Signals Policy Direction Following May 2026 Meeting
December Meeting plunges to 47%17%
The Fed's May 2026 meeting reinforced an adaptive monetary policy stance, emphasizing data dependency amid ongoing inflation concerns and labor market strength. Markets reacted to the Fed's cautious signals, which tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at April 28-29 meeting amid disagreement on future easing
December Meeting rises to 66%4%
The Federal Reserve's April 28-29, 2026 meeting resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The vote revealed disagreement among members about the characterization of future easing possibilities, but no rate cuts were made. The Fed continued to monitor economic data closely, signaling a patient approach to monetary policy.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority Support for Rate Hold Amid Solid Economic Expansion
Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed most members supported holding rates steady, citing solid economic growth and inflation concerns. The minutes also indicated openness to future cuts if inflation progresses toward target, maintaining policy flexibility.
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 17-18 FOMC meeting amid economic uncertainty
December Meeting drops to 71%8%
At the March 17-18, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, emphasizing elevated uncertainty and continued attention to inflation and employment risks. One member dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut, but the majority opted for a hold, reflecting cautious policy amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical tensions.
Mar 18 2026
FOMC holds rates steady amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty
December Meeting jumps to 27%5%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with inflation data showing a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing a 'higher-for-longer' rate outlook and diminishing near-term cut expectations.
Mar 17 2026
FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty
December Meeting drops to 77%10%
At the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced the cautious approach and lowered market expectations for near-term easing.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March meeting despite political pressure
Despite public calls from former President Trump for an emergency rate cut, the Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% at the March 17-18 meeting, reflecting a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Votes 11-1 to Hold Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in an 11-1 vote to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a cut. The decision reflected concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious policy stance and influencing market expectations for rate cuts later in the year.
Mar 17 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Emphasizes Inflation Risks and Labor Market Stability at March Press Conference
October Meeting plunges to 64%15%
Following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and a stable labor market, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. His remarks tempered market expectations for immediate easing, contributing to the price decline in the October and September meeting options.
"Fed rate cut by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December Meeting" at 12%, followed by "October Meeting" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 12¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Fed rate cut by...?" has generated $3.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Fed rate cut by...?" is "December Meeting" at 12%, meaning the market assigns a 12% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October Meeting" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Fed rate cut by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed rate cut by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.3 million traded on “Fed rate cut by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Fed rate cut by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 12¢ for "December Meeting" in the "Fed rate cut by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 12% chance that "December Meeting" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 12¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 88¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Fed rate cut by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jan 7, 2027. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Fed rate cut by...?" market has an active community of 30 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Fed rate cut by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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