The FOMC's unanimous September 16 decision to hike the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% marks the first increase since 2023 and reflects persistent inflation pressures, with the median SEP projecting 3.7% headline PCE and 3.4% core PCE for 2026. Stronger growth forecasts at 2.3% real GDP and a lower 4.1% unemployment rate supported the hawkish shift, lifting the year-end 2026 rate median to 4.1% and implying at least one additional hike. Market-implied odds now favor further tightening at the October 28 or December meetings, with the 2-year Treasury yield recently exceeding 4.7%. Key upcoming catalysts include October inflation data and the December FOMC decision, which could clarify the policy path amid upside inflation risks.