Following the Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026 decision to hike the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, market-implied odds heavily favor additional tightening rather than cuts. The updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the 2026 median rate outlook to 4.1% and core PCE inflation to 3.4%, reflecting resilient growth near 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1%. Futures pricing now assigns roughly 90% probability to at least one more hike by year-end, with October and December meetings as the primary near-term catalysts. Elevated inflation readings and the Committee’s hawkish tone have pushed Treasury yields higher, reinforcing trader consensus against near-term easing until incoming data show clearer progress on the 2% target.